Preakness win makes Lookin At Lucky first in NTRA Poll

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05/17/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lookin At Lucky, coming off his win in the Preakness Stakes, sits atop the latest NTRA Three-year-old Poll. The colt's success in the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown also vaulted him into third-place in the national standings.

The 2009 champion as a two-year-old jumped from fourth in last week's poll into first following a three-quarters length win over First Dude at Pimlico Race Course. Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky received 14 first-place votes and 174 points.

Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver, eighth in the Preakness, dropped one spot to second with three first-place votes and 148 points.

Derby runner-up Ice Box did not run on Saturday and also fell one slot to third with 137 points.

Blind Luck, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, rose one position to fourth with 92 points.

Preakness runner-up First Dude enters the poll in fifth with 78 points.

The retired Eskendereya continued to receive one first-place vote and remains in sixth with 58 points.

Jackson Bend, third in the Preakness, also enters the poll in seventh with 48 points.

Dropping from third to eighth is Paddy O'Prado after finishing sixth in the Preakness. Third in the Kentucky Derby, Paddy O'Prado received 47 points.

Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy fell one spot to ninth with 40 points and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Evening Jewel received 31 points to also slide one notch to 10th.

In the NTRA National Poll, undefeated mare Zenyatta and Quality Road are still in the top two spots, respectively. Zenyatta has 14 first-place votes and 170 points while Quality Road has four top votes and 155 points.

Lookin At Lucky received 97 points for third followed by Misremembered 70, Blind Luck 68, Rachel Alexandra 60, Super Saver 57, Unrivaled Belle 45, Blame 36 and Rail Trip with 32 points.

Blame used a win in Saturday's $100,000 William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico to gain entrance into the poll.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.

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