Homers lift Bailey to first win, Reds down Tribe

Baseball Betting Lines

06/09/2007 - Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Homer Bailey won his much anticipated major league debut as the Cincinnati Reds began a three-game interleague series against the Cleveland Indians at Great American Ball Park with a 4-3 victory.

Bailey (1-0), who is considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball as the Reds' seventh overall pick in the 2004 draft, gave up two runs on five hits with four walks and three strikeouts over five frames. David Weathers tossed the final 1 1/3 innings for his 12th save of the season.

Jeff Conine, Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey Jr. all homered for the Reds, who won their second straight.

Ryan Garko homered for the Indians, who have split their last four. Victor Martinez went 2-for-4 with an RBI and scored a run in the loss. Left-hander Cliff Lee (2-4), who has dropped his last four starts, allowed four runs on four hits with three strikeouts and three walks over six innings for the Indians.

Cleveland plated a run in the first when Travis Hafner singled and scored on Martinez's double, but Phillips' solo shot to right field on a 1-2 pitch tied the score in the home half.

The Indians took a one-run lead in the fourth, as Martinez sharply grounded a lead-off single, advanced to third on Trot Nixon's double, and came home on David Dellucci's sacrifice fly. Nixon was thrown out trying to advance to third on the play.

The Reds responded with a pair of runs in the fourth. Phillips led off with a double, and Conine smacked a two-run shot to left field on a 1-1 pitch.

Cincinnati got an insurance run in the sixth on Griffey's homer to right field on the first pitch of the frame.

Cleveland made it interesting with a run in the ninth on Garko's pinch-hit homer to left field on a 2-1 count, but Grady Sizemore flied out, Casey Blake grounded out, and Hafner got called out on strikes to end the game.

Blake ended 1-for-5 to extend his hit streak to 17 games.

The Tribe loaded the bases on Bailey in the fifth, but the youngster struck out Dellucci looking to end the frame unharmed.

Game Notes

Cleveland took two of three from the Reds earlier in the year and is 15-10 in the series since the start of the 2003 campaign. The Tribe has also won four of their last seven in the Queen City.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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