Harvick crushes field to win Gateway truck race

Autoracing Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - Madison, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Neither a stiff neck nor scorching heat could stop Kevin Harvick from winning Saturday's 200-mile Camping World Truck Series race with a dominating performance at Gateway International Raceway.

The CampingWorld.com 200 at Gateway was scheduled for Friday night, but a lengthy power outage around the 1.25-mile track forced postponement until the following day.

Harvick, who was complaining of a stiff neck before the start of the race, started on the pole and led 143 of 160 laps. He held a sizeable lead before the fifth and final caution came with 36 laps remaining. When the race resumed, Harvick quickly pulled away from the field and then easily beat his fellow Sprint Cup series competitor Brad Keselowski by 5.2 seconds for his third victory of the season and the ninth of his truck career.

"Physically, I feel okay," Harvick said. "I'm just so nervous about moving somewhere I shouldn't and catching my neck. It felt a lot better the hotter it got in [the truck], so that was a good thing."

Harvick and Keselowski are among several drivers who ran in the truck race and are scheduled to compete in tonight's 250-mile Nationwide Series event here.

Temperatures during the truck race soared to around 95 degrees, with the heat index well over 100 degrees.

"I feel good, but I'm just a little hot and sweaty," second-place finisher Keselowski said. "I'll go back to the bus, take a nice shower and get ready for the Nationwide race tonight. I think we have even a better car over there than we had a truck over here. This truck was pretty good."

Johnny Sauter finished third, while Todd Bodine, the series points leader, took the fourth spot. Matt Crafton completed the top-five.

Timothy Peters, rookie Austin Dillon, who won last week at Iowa, Aric Almirola, Brian Ickler and Mike Skinner, last year's race winner at Gateway, finished sixth through 10th, respectively.

Bodine padded his lead to 101 points over Almirola.

Ron Hornaday Jr. finished a disappointing 26th. Hornaday was running in the second spot in the early going, but suffered a mechanical problem and eventually fell 10 laps down. The four-time defending series champion has yet to win a race this season after posting six victories, including a record five races in a row, during his 2009 title season.

On lap 80, Ricky Carmichael and Jeffrey Earnhardt were involved in a hard crash. Mike Skinner bumped Carmichael and turned him around into the wall. As his truck then slid down the track, Earnhardt could not avoid the incident, as slammed into the rear of Carmichael's truck. Both drivers were not injured during the incident.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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