Golden Bears hold off Ducks in Pac-10 battle

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/29/2007 - Eugene, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cameron Colvin's stretch for the end zone was just short, as the Oregon wide receiver fumbled out of the California end zone for a touchback with 16 seconds left, and the sixth-ranked Golden Bears held on for a 31-24 win over the 11th-ranked Ducks in a crucial Pac-10 showdown.

DeSean Jackson had 11 catches for 161 yards and two scores for California (5-0, 2-0 Pac-10), and Justin Forsett gained 101 yards on 23 carries with two TDs. Nate Longshore, who missed a series late in the game with an apparent ankle injury, completed 28-of-43 passes for 285 yards and two scores.

Dennis Dixon went 31-of-44 passing for 306 yards and a touchdown, but was intercepted twice for Oregon (4-1, 1-1). Dixon also added a TD run for the Ducks, who got 120 yards on 21 carries and a score from Jonathan Stewart. Colvin finished with 74 yards on seven catches with a score for Oregon, but couldn't break the plane for the tying score in the final minute.

Longshore took a late hit to his leg late in the final quarter, twisting his ankle, and he left for a possession while the ankle was wrapped. Freshman Kevin Riley came in for Longshore, handing off a few times before Cal punted. Longshore was back on the field on the following Cal possession, but was obviously hindered by the injury, and the Bears offense could not sustain a drive to run off the clock.

The Ducks took over at their own 23 with 1:45 left, looking for the game-tying touchdown. Dixon found Jeremiah Johnson for 26 yards, putting the Ducks at the Cal 40, and two plays later hooked up with Colvin on 14-yard gain to the 20.

A 15-yard pass to Jaison Williams set the Ducks up at the Cal 5 with 22 seconds left. On the following play, Dixon threw left to Colvin, who took the ball to the outside and stretched out, trying to put the ball over the pylon, but it was punched out of his hands and through the end zone. The officials gathered for a few seconds before signaling for the game-ending touchback, which stood up after official review, handing the Bears the win.

The only score in the first quarter was Matt Evensen's 32-yard field goal with 47 seconds left, giving Oregon a 3-0 lead. The defenses held the offenses in check in the second quarter as well.

Cal evened the score on Jordan Kay's 34-yard field goal with 6:20 left in the half. The Ducks were able to answer, though, finally piecing together a drive late in the half. Stewart capped the 16-play, 80-yard drive with his five-yard burst up the middle, and the Ducks took a 10-3 lead with 1:44 left in the half.

Cal knotted the game at 10-10 late in the third quarter, with Longshore hooking up with Jackson on a 25-yard scoring toss, capping a six-play, 58-yard drive with 4:44 left in the quarter.

The Ducks went to the big play on their next drive to again take the lead, on a 42-yard connection from Dixon to Colvin, giving Oregon a 17-10 lead with 2:39 left in the third quarter.

The Bears opened the fourth quarter by closing their eight-play, 59-yard drive with a one-yard dive by Forsett, tying the game at 17-17 with 14:20 left in regulation.

Cal took over at midfield on their next drive, thanks to a shanked punt, and capitalized quickly, with Longshore finding Jackson for a 31-yard score, and the Bears jumped on top 24-17 with 11:52 left.

Dixon led the Ducks back, though, marching them 91 yards on 10 plays, and pushing in the end zone himself on a one-yard dive that again tied things, this time at 24-24 with 7:06 left.

Dixon threw a crucial pick to Anthony Felder, though, giving the Bears possession deep in Oregon territory. They moved 21 yards on three plays, with Forsett's one-yard TD run giving Cal the seven point edge with 3:11 left.

Game Notes

Oregon outgained Cal, 497-400...Forsett's TD extended his streak to six consecutive games with a rushing touchdown...California leads the all-time series with Oregon by a count of 38-30-2, but the Ducks had won eight of the last 10.

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.