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12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons hope to take advantage of a Carolina Panthers team in disarray and record a much-needed victory when the two rivals square off this Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
This late-December matchup was thought to be the game that would decide the NFC South champion heading into this season, but things haven't quite gone to plan for either team. While New Orleans has run away with the division crown, the Falcons are battling for their playoff lives and the Panthers -- the consensus preseason favorite in the South -- have seen their postseason chances basically go up in smoke because of a current four-game losing streak.
Atlanta is currently tied with the New York Giants for the NFC's final Wild Card berth, but the Giants own the tiebreaker by virtue of a 27-14 win over the Falcons back in October. And with a tough game on the road against the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles looming next week, a win against the reeling Panthers is vital to Atlanta's playoff fortunes.
The Falcons weren't in this predicament at midseason, when the club got off to a 5-2 start and stood in the thick of the NFC South race. However, losses in five of its last seven games, including last Saturday's 38-28 setback to Dallas, have put Atlanta's once-promising season on the brink.
A performance out of Michael Vick like the four-touchdown effort the exciting but erratic quarterback produced through the air against the Cowboys would go a long way towards strengthening the Falcons' position. The athletic signal- caller wound up leaving that game in the final stages because of a groin strain, although Vick is expected to be back under center for this one.
Carolina finds itself in even more dire straits than Atlanta. The disappointing Panthers come in with four straight losses under their belts and suffered a humiliating 37-3 shellacking at home to Pittsburgh last week, the franchise's most lopsided defeat since a 41-0 debacle against the Falcons in 2002.
The two most recent losses came without the services of quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has a ligament tear in his right thumb and is unlikely to play again this week. That would still leave the offense in the shaky hands of Chris Weinke, who has guided the Panthers to victory just once in 17 career starts.
SERIES HISTORY
The Falcons lead the all-time series with Carolina, 15-8, including a 20-6 road victory when the teams met in Week 1. The Panthers swept last year's home-and-home, claiming a 24-6 decision in Charlotte in Week 13 and a 44-11 rout at the Georgia Dome in Week 17. Prior to 2005, Atlanta had won nine of their last 10 overall against the Panthers, including their own home-and-home sweep in 2004.
Carolina's John Fox enters Sunday's contest with a 3-6 career mark against Atlanta, while the Falcons' Jim Mora is 3-2 against both Fox and Carolina as a head coach.
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
It's been a struggle for Weinke (593 passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INT) since the former Heisman Trophy winner was forced into action because of Delhomme's injury. The 34-year-old, who hadn't played regularly since his rookie campaign of 2001, did throw for a career-best 423 yards in Carolina's 27-13 loss to the Giants in Week 14, but also had three costly picks which contributed to his team's demise. Weinke then failed to move the offense last week against Pittsburgh, although he didn't get a whole lot of support from a mediocre and banged-up offensive line that's been a sore spot for the Panthers all year long. Carolina ranks just 27th in the league in scoring (16.4 ppg), partly because game-breaking wide receiver Steve Smith (76 receptions, 1,081 yards, 6 TD) has been the offense's lone legitimate big-play threat. Veteran Keyshawn Johnson (66 receptions, 770 yards, 4 TD) has also had a good season opposite Smith, and Drew Carter (28 receptions, 357 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a reliable option as the third receiver. Carter sprained an ankle during the Pittsburgh game, however, and could be unavailable on Sunday.
Weinke's numbers could very well improve against an Atlanta defense that has surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league (236.2 ypg) and was powerless in its attempts to stop Dallas' Tony Romo, who rolled up 278 yards and completed 22 of 29 throws last week. The secondary does possess a Pro Bowl player in DeAngelo Hall (54 tackles, 4 INT, 10 PBU), although the cocky corner is coming off a rough outing against the Cowboys in which he was beaten for a pair of touchdowns by Terrell Owens. The beleaguered unit may get a boost by the hopeful return of cornerback Jason Webster (49 tackles, 2 INT), who has missed six straight games with a groin injury but is now back practicing. The Falcons have compiled a respectable 34 sacks on the season, and should be able to pressure the immobile Weinke, who has been sacked seven times in his two starts, provided brittle end John Abraham (17 tackles, 4 sacks) can be effective after tearing a ligament in his left thumb last week. The pass-rush specialist had a monster game in Atlanta's Week 1 win over the Panthers, producing six tackles, two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.
A contributing factor to Carolina's offensive woes has been the season-long dormant status of a running game that played a key role in the club's run to last year's NFC title game. The Panthers rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in rushing yards (97.9 ypg) despite having a pair of quality halfbacks in DeShaun Foster (716 rushing yards, 2 TD) and rookie DeAngelo Williams (412 yards, 1 TD). The problems can again be traced back to the play up front, where season- ending injuries to center Justin Hartwig, tackle Travelle Wharton and now guard Mike Wahle, who was placed on IR Wednesday because of a torn right labrum, have wreaked havoc on the unit. The makeshift line couldn't effectively block the Steelers last week, as Carolina mustered only 43 yards on the ground.
Atlanta has been solid in defending the run, as the Falcons are allowing just 102.2 rushing yards per game (10th overall) on the season. A deep linebacking corps led by five-time Pro Bowler Keith Brooking (120 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the strength of the defense. Strongside starter Michael Boley (63 tackles, 2 sacks) has enjoyed a breakout second season and the oft-injured Edgerton Hartwell (21 tackles, 1 sack) has been a stabilizing presence in the middle when able to play. The offseason additions of beefy tackle Grady Jackson (31 tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (86 tackles, 1 sack) have also bolstered a run defense that was one of the league's worst a year ago.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
The Falcons emphasize the run more than any NFL club, and are headed for their third consecutive team rushing title. Atlanta averages an impressive 192.6 yards per game on the ground, a number that's aided by Vick's elusiveness out of the pocket. The dynamic playmaker needs just 10 yards to become the first quarterback in league history to rush for 1,000 in a season, but his effectiveness as a scrambler may be hindered by his injury. Veteran Warrick Dunn (1,053 yards, 4 TD) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year in the Dallas game, although the diminutive back hasn't had more than 87 yards in any of the team's last nine contests. Speedy rookie Jerious Norwood (550 yards, 2 TD) is averaging a healthy 6.5 yards per rush, and should be available to contribute after sitting out last week due to a sore knee. Atlanta racked up a whopping 252 yards on the Panthers in the season opener, with Dunn amassing 132 on 29 carries.
Carolina ranked fourth overall in rushing yards allowed (91.6 ypg) in 2005 but is yielding more than 20 yards per game in that area this season. The season- ending loss of middle linebacker Dan Morgan has had a crippling effect on the defense, as ex-Falcon Chris Draft (88 tackles, 4 sacks) has been steady but unspectacular in his place. Tackle Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, but that honor may have been based more on reputation then performance. The fastest member of the front seven is second- year linebacker Thomas Davis (84 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who likely will draw the unenviable assignment of trying to contain Vick. If the Panthers are to succeed on Sunday, the defense must improve on the 159 rushing yards it surrendered in last week's defeat to Pittsburgh.
Atlanta's prowess running the ball is well-documented, but the team sits on the opposite end of the spectrum in the passing game. The Falcons are averaging a league-low 147 yards per contest through the air, although Vick (2,284 passing yards, 11 INT) has thrown for a career-best 19 touchdowns this year. He's only completed 52.8 percent of his passes, however, with the low figure partially due to a season-long rash of drops from the receivers. Vick's favorite target remains Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler (677 receiving yards, 7 TD), who leads Atlanta with 47 catches. The offense would greatly benefit from added consistency from the wideout group of Michael Jenkins (36 receptions, 408 yards, 7 TD), Roddy White (25 receptions, 404 yards) and Ashley Lelie (25 receptions, 390 yards, 1 TD), all former No. 1 picks. Jenkins and unheralded fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 3 TD) have been effective within the red zone, though, with Griffith snaring two of Vick's four TD tosses versus Dallas.
The Panthers stand a respectable 10th overall in passing yards allowed (190.7 ypg), although the secondary hasn't been the big-play contingent it was a year ago. Carolina's quality cornerback duo of Chris Gamble (56 tackles, 2 INT) and Ken Lucas (27 tackles, 2 INT) has battled injuries throughout the season, which has provided increased playing time for promising youngster Richard Marshall (72 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PBU). Rushing the passer, normally an area of strength for Carolina, has been a problem during the current losing streak, mostly because superstar Julius Peppers (55 tackles, 11 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) has been held in check lately. The All-Pro end has failed to register a sack in five consecutive games. Compounding matters is the season-ending knee injury that veteran Mike Rucker (39 tackles, 5 sacks) suffered during last week's loss. Dependable reserve Al Wallace (21 tackles, 2 sacks) will start opposite Peppers in Rucker's place.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Atlanta has plenty of incentive for this game that goes beyond the obvious playoff ramifications. The Panthers humiliated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in the 2005 regular-season finale, a loss that was a driving force for Atlanta's relatively easy 20-6 triumph at Carolina in Week 1. The Panthers' lack of effectiveness on offense and recent struggles stopping the run should allow the Falcons to control the clock and grind out a methodical win much like the season-opener. Weinke's dubious credentials under center and Carolina's history of not playing well in the Georgia Dome, where the Panthers had lost seven straight prior to last year's breakthrough, don't inspire confidence for the visitors either.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 20, Panthers 10
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
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NFL betting action is back! At MySportsbook, all of the pro football odds are posted for the NFC North. Check out how we see the four teams in this cloudy division stacking up this year in the chase for the playoffs! Green Bay Packers (+125) - With QB Aaron Rodgers leading the offense and DC Dom Capers working his magic on defense, the Packers are a real force to be reckoned with.
Virtually nothing changed on this offense for Green Bay from last year to this year, save for the addition of rookie OT Brian Bulaga to the bunch. Expect more huge numbers from the Pack, and a relatively favorable schedule should get them over the hump and into the playoffs once again this season. My NFL Betting Predictions: 11-5, 1st place in NFC North Minnesota Vikings (+130) - There are still too many unknowns about the Vikes this year. There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not.
There is a huge difference between QB Brett Favre and either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels under center. Plus, is Favre comes back, is he really going to be able to keep his pick total under double digits again? Depth at running back looked like it might have been an issue with RB Chester Taylor fleeing in free agency, but drafting RB Toby Gerhart should pick up the difference. This defense is still suitable, but with a first place schedule, making the playoffs is going to be very tough regardless of whether #4 comes back or not. Play this weekly NFL Football Contestto see if you can win.
Chicago Bears (+350) - The Bears are probably a bit of an overhyped team once again this year.No, we don't think it is plausible for QB Jay Cutler to have as bad of a season as he did last year, and we do think the additions of RB Chester Taylor and DE Julius Peppers are going to help immensely, but there's still something in the water in the Windy City that we aren't so sure about. Maybe Chicago finds its way to .500... but then again, maybe it doesn't. If Favre comes back, Cutler might be the worst quarterback in this division this year.
Detroit Lions (+1500) - The Lions are probably once again going to be the whipping boys for the rest of the teams in the NFC North, but they aren't just going to roll over and die once again. There is some real talent amassing on this team offensively, as the combination of QB Matt Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, WR Calvin Johnson, and TE Brandon Pettigrew should put a bunch of points on the board if the offensive line can even remotely hold up. The questions really lie on defense, where it feels like DT Ndamukong Suh is going to be trying to stop opposing teams all by himself. This year should show some marked improvement in the Motor City.
The Patriots will make NFL betting fans a lot of money this season, get in early and enjoy the cash.
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