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06/04/2010 - Washington, DC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ian Desmond singled in the winning run as part of a two-run seventh inning rally that lifted Washington to a 4-2 win over Cincinnati in the opener of a three-game series at Nationals Park.
Desmond, Cristian Guzman and Adam Dunn each finished with a pair of hits for the Nationals, who snapped a three-game slide and won for just a second time in their last seven games.
Tyler Clippard (8-3) earned the win with one shutout inning in relief, as Washington beat the Reds for a fourth straight game going back to August of last season. Matt Capps stranded two runners in the ninth to earn his 18th save.
Enerio Del Rosario (1-1) took the loss after allowing the decisive runs -- both unearned -- in 1 2/3 innings of work for the Reds, who have dropped four of their last five.
Brandon Phillips had three hits and drove in a run for Cincinnati.
Josh Willingham led off the seventh against Del Rosario with a single and moved to second base on a dropped fly ball that allowed Roger Bernadina to reach first base. Desmond followed with a base hit to left field to score Willingham with the go-ahead run. Bernadina advanced to third base on a sacrifice bunt and scored on a Willie Harris pinch-hit sacrifice fly to give the Nats a 4-2 lead.
Drew Storen tossed a scoreless eighth inning and turned the game over to Capps, the major league leader in saves.
Laynce Nix delivered a leadoff pinch-hit single to start the ninth and Phillips singled with one out. The right-hander bounced back to strike out Joey Votto and get Scott Rolen to foul out to end the game.
The Reds tallied first in the second inning when Drew Stubbs singled with one out, stole second base and came around to score on a Ramon Hernandez base hit.
The Nationals answered in the bottom of the inning when Desmond singled with one out, moved to second base on a wild pitch, stayed put when Livan Hernandez walked with two outs and scored on Guzman's looping single into left field.
Washington grabbed the lead in the third on a bloop single into centerfield by Bernadina with one out that plated Ryan Zimmerman.
Reds hurler Aaron Harang made it through only four frames, yielding a pair of runs on eight hits. He walked one and fanned four and was followed by Micah Owings, who worked 1 2/3 scoreless innings, and Daniel Ray Herrera, who got one out.
The visitors scored to even the game at two in the fifth when Phillips singled home Orlando Cabrera, who had started the inning with a base hit and moved into scoring position on a balk.
Hernandez lasted six innings for the Nats, allowing two runs on eight hits while walking four and fanning three. Clippard worked a scoreless seventh to earn his first win since May 12.
Game Notes
Harang visited troops Friday morning at the Walter Reed Army Medical Center. 23 of Washington's last 30 games have been decided by two runs or less, while seven of the Reds last nine losses have been by one or two runs...Phillips extended his hitting streak to seven games...He has 15 hits during the streak, including five multi-hit games...Hernandez has gone six starts since his last win on May 4. He is 2-7 in 14 career starts against the Reds and has not beaten them since September, 2000 while pitching for San Francisco.
<< Mackenzie moves in front at Times Colonist Open
Victoria, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - American Brock Mackenzie fired a six-under 64
on Friday to move atop the leaderboard after the second round of the Times
Colonist Open.
Mackenzie finished 36 holes at 10-under 130 to move two strokes
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Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Roy Halladay wasn't perfect, but the
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Halladay (8-3), in his
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Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Clay Buchholz threw his second career shutout
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Buchholz (8-3), who threw only his third career comp
<< UCLA coaching legend Wooden dies at 99
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Legendary UCLA men's basketball coach John
Wooden passed away Friday at the age of 99.
Wooden coached the Bruins from 1948-1975 and claimed 10 national championships
over a 12-season stretch, including a r
Flyers even series with Game 4 victory >>
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Chicago
Masterson, Peralta help Indians rout White Sox >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jhonny Peralta had four hits and drove in four
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Peralta doubled twice and scored twice in the
Rangers fend off Rays thanks to seven-run fourth >>
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vladimir Guerrero's three-run double capped a
seven-run fourth inning rally that carried Texas to a 9-6 comeback win over
Tampa Bay in the opener of a three-game set at Rangers Ballpark.
Josh Hamilton and
Kendall, Royals top Tigers >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Kendall collected three hits and
drove in three runs, as Kansas City logged a 7-3 win against Detroit in the
opener of a three-game series from Kauffman Stadium.
Scott Podsednik scored three
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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