Busch holds off Kenseth for win in Kansas

Autoracing Betting Lines

09/29/2007 - Kansas City, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kyle Busch took his first lead with 17 laps to go and captured Saturday afternoon's Yellow Transportation 300 Busch Series race at the Kansas Speedway. The No.5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet driver crossed the finish line just 0.085 seconds ahead of Matt Kenseth.

The victory was Busch's third of the season and 10th of his Busch career.

"It's a testament to this team, they don't give up," said Busch.

Kenseth brought the field to the green flag for 200 laps of racing, but it was points leader Carl Edwards who led the first lap and beyond. Edwards led eight laps before he gave up the top spot to Denny Hamlin, who lasted just one lap before Kenseth retook the lead.

Things then began to settle down and Kenseth took control of the early portion of the race. But only for about 20 laps and then they played some more "leap frog."

First Greg Biffle, then Jeff Burton took turns in the lead, but Kenseth was never far from the top, only falling as low as fourth.

Burton began to expand his lead as the field hit the 80-lap mark (to more than four seconds), but a caution flag erased Burton's lead in a heartbeat.

On lap 95, Edwards suddenly slowed after colliding with Kenseth which caused a cut left-front tire. . Try as Edwards' pit crew might, they couldn't get the repairs done in time and the points leader went down a lap to the leaders.

Up front, Brian Vickers was challenging Burton and in fact, took the lead on lap 96. He still held it at the halfway point.

Vickers, Biffle and Burton quickly opened up a working margin after a restart on lap 119. Meanwhile, Kenseth had some problems that forced an early pit stop and left him in 18th place with 80 laps to go. And Edwards pulled his car behind pit road for major repairs (oil cooler).

A round of pit stops for the leaders left Casey Mears and Kenseth, both of whom did not pit, with the lead.

Three drivers, Mears, who still had to pit one more time, Kenseth, who might have to pit one more time and Clint Bowyer who stopped at lap 130 and probably could go the distance, took control of the race. Their lead was two seconds over fourth-place Busch with 50 laps to go. Then Mears fell back and it was between Kenseth and Bowyer.

One lap later, Edwards, who had returned after his repairs, suffered a hard crash after spinning and his day was done.

"That was pretty hard...kind of a long day," said a frustrated Edwards. "Something broke on the car."

Mears came in on the Edwards caution as did most of the leaders except for Kenseth, Bowyer and Busch.

With 35 laps remaining, the trio built a one-second lead on the field. Busch got around Bowyer and headed for Kenseth as the No.2 Chevrolet began to fade. Kenseth and Busch were almost side-by-side with 30 laps to go, Kenseth at the top of the track and Busch at the bottom.

Then a caution flag, the ninth of the race and one short of the record, by Brad Keselowski on lap 176 slowed the fun and set up a short sprint to the finish.

Kenseth and Busch immediately went back to their battle for the top spot. This time Busch got around Kenseth with 17 laps to go just as rookie Bryan Clauson slammed the outside wall to bring out another caution flag.

When they cleared the track and got going there were just 13 laps to go. Busch got off to a good restart and still held a half-second lead with 10 laps to go.

This time Busch used the top of the track and forced Kenseth to the bottom. It paid off as Kenseth could only get close, but couldn't complete the pass.

Despite a 38th-place finish, Edwards will bring a 696-point lead to the next race at the Lowe's Motor Speedway on Saturday, October 12th.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.