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09/03/2010 - Sparta, KY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Todd Bodine overcame a spin and then conserved enough fuel at the finish to pull off a stunning victory in the Built Ford Tough 225 Camping World Truck Series race at Kentucky Speedway.
Bodine, the current points leader, attempted to pass Kyle Busch for the lead just after a restart on lap 81. But Bodine got loose after a panel fell off his truck. He did not hit anything while he spun on the infield grass.
The 2006 series champion pitted several times for repairs during the caution. He remained on the lead, but restarted in 25th.
Bodine did not pit during a late-race round of stops under green. He inherited the lead for the final time with 13 laps remaining when rookie Austin Dillon, the pole sitter, made his last stop. Bodine finished 5.6 seconds ahead of runner-up Johnny Sauter.
After the race, Bodine blamed Busch for the mid-race incident.
"The first person I got to thank is Kyle Busch for driving dirty, sucking me down and getting me spun out to give us the gas," Bodine said. "When I got up behind Kyle, we got aero tight, which is what happens. I backed off and was just kind of riding there and trying to keep the right front out and waiting for later, and low and behold, we got spun around and then got some fuel, and here we are in victory lane."
Busch, who was attempting to win his third consecutive truck race, as well as his fifth straight NASCAR national touring series event, pitted from the lead with 23 laps remaining and fell one lap behind in 18th. He did bounce back for a seventh-place finish.
Busch heard Bodine's post-race comments and then had a heated discussion with Bodine during his victory lane celebration.
With the win, Bodine widened his lead to 261 points over Aric Almirola, who finished third.
"[The team] was incredible," Bodine said. "We beat everyone out when we took the fuel, and that is what helped us get out in front...that's what makes a great championship team is consistency."
Jason White finished fourth, and Ricky Carmichael was fifth.
Timothy Peters took the sixth spot. Ryan Sieg, Dillon and Matt Crafton completed the top-10.
Ron Hornaday Jr., the defending series champion and last year's Kentucky race winner, suffered a mechanical problem late in the race and finished four laps behind in 29th.
<< Rays down O's to keep pace in AL East
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carl Crawford went 3-for-5 with an RBI and a
run scored, as the Tampa Bay Rays beat Baltimore, 4-1, in the opener of a
three-game series at Camden Yards.
Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and Reid Brignac
<< Jones, Alvarez and Doumit power Pirates past Nats
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Garrett Jones hit two doubles and drove in
three runs, leading Pittsburgh to an 8-5 win over Washington to begin a three-
game weekend series at PNC Park.
Ryan Doumit homered among three hits for the Pi
<< Texans cut K Brown
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak conceded
Friday that the team had cut longtime kicker Kris Brown.
Kubiak did not want to discuss the whole of the team's cuts at Friday's press
conference, saying they
<< Morrison, Miller pace Marlins over Braves
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Logan Morrison tripled twice, scored two times
and drove in a run in support of five solid innings from Andrew Miller as
Florida downed Atlanta, 6-1, to being a three-game set.
Chad Tracy had a key two
Printers, Lions beat up on shorthanded Alouettes >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Casey Printers threw a pair of touchdown
passes and British Columbia's defense gave Chris Leak fits in his first pro
start as the Lions snapped out of an awful funk in a big way with a 38-17
dismant
Broncos' Dumervil out for 2010 season >>
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Denver Broncos linebacker Elvis Dumervil
will be placed on injured reserve and miss the entire 2010 season after
undergoing surgery last month to repair a torn pectoral muscle.
Friday, Dumervil p
Last Second Score Deals Villanova Loss in Wild Opener >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Once again it came down to a field goal.
Last year, Villanova kicker Nick Yako was afforded the opportunity to be the
hero as he drilled a 32-yard field goal as time expired, giving Villanova a
27-24 win
Hardy, Span help Twins rally past Rangers >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.J. Hardy and Denard Span had run-scoring
singles in the seventh inning to put Minnesota in front, and the Twins held on
for a 4-3 win over the Texas Rangers in the opener of a three-game series.
The bat
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Two playoff teams from 2007 take center stage on the NFL Network Sunday night in a Week 2 NFL betting match-up when the (0-1) New England Patriots betting head south to Florida for a contest with the (1-0) Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New England HC Bill Belichick couldn’t care less about the way his team plays in the preseason. With a chance to tie last week’s game with the Baltimore Ravens betting, He elected to go for the two-point conversion and outright victory. The conversion failed, and the Pats ended up falling to the Ravens by a 16-15 final count.
New England rolled off twelve unanswered points to give it a chance at securing the victory, but it never threatened to cover the 3.5-point spread. NFL bettors saw this one coming, as they bet the Ravens down from +6 to +3.5 as the week progressed. QB Tom Brady didn’t take part in the Patriots first preseason clash, but could see action this weekend.
His three replacements all put up embarrassing numbers. They went a combined 17 for 33, and threw three interceptions and no touchdowns. The New England defense was encouraging, as they held the Ravens to 2/12 third down conversions and surrendered just ten first downs. That ‘D’ should be bolstered with the addition of former Bucs and Denver Broncos betting safety John Lynch, who could make his Patriots debut on Sunday against his former mates.
HC Jon Gruden had to be impressed with the way his Bucs played on both sides of the ball in their dominating 17-6 victory over the Miami Dolphins in Week 1’s NFL pre-season betting action. Bucs bettors were quite happy with the effort, as they made a mockery of the fact that they were underdogs in the game.
The logjam at the quarterback position didn’t get any easier to separate for Gruden, as all four of his QBs had positive experiences in the first exhibition of 2008. The four combined to complete 28 of their 40 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, and that was without starting QB Jeff Garcia in the lineup.
RB Michael Bennett had 19 carries and four receptions, totaling 90 yards and a touchdown. Expect to see more of Bennett, Kenneth Darby, and Earnest Graham, as they all compete for playing time with Warrick Dunn in the backfield this season. Defensively, the Bucs recorded four sacks and held the Fins offense in check all day.
First round draft pick Aqib Talib was impressive in the secondary, recording a tackle and two pass defenses in his debut. Don’t be surprised to see Talib in the starting lineup opposite Ronde Barber for the Bucs in ’08.
The betting trends suggest that NFL bettors should be backing the Bucs in this intra-conference exhibition.
These two teams hooked up last year in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs winning that game 13-10. The Buccaneers have only lost one preseason game at home dating back to the beginning of the ’05 preseason. The Patriots have had a mixed bag of results in their recent exhibitions. They have gone 2-2 ATS and SU each of the last three years.
New England currently sits as modest 1-point favorites in this preseason showdown with the ‘total’ now sitting at 34.5.
You can find these lines and all of the NFL betting lines , so be sure to login and get your wagers down before kickoff!
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines .
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